The rise and fall of the Taliban by Senator A. Rehman Malik

Senator A. Rehman Malik
Former Interior Minister, Chairman IRR

The increasingly perilous situation in Afghanistan is leading towards civil war among various mujahedeen factions including the Taliban. It looks like the US will permanently withdraw military support being provided to the Afghan government, which obviously means a challenge for the present government. The cycle of troubles connected to Afghanistan has always brought common troubles to both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan has suffered in the past because of uncertainty and wars in Afghanistan. It looks like efforts are made by certain anti-Pakistan forces to once again push the Afghan war to Pakistan hence we need to exercise vigilance to avoid this.

This present situation reminds me of the beginning of a winter season while I was sitting at office; my operator connected me through the old bureaucratic landline black phone to Gen Naseer Ullah Babar, the then Interior Minister of Pakistan who asked me to come to his office and I found him a bit excited on the phone. I proceeded to the Minister’s office of Narcotics Divisions in Blue Area. Upon my arrival, we moved into the conference hall where I was introduced to Mullah Omar who was present there wearing his Turban with one defective eye. I found that Mullah Omar and two other Taliban accomplices seemed confident enough to take over control of Qandahar. Gen Babar was pretty close to the Mujahideen including Gulbuddin Hekmatyar who actually was brought up by Gen Babar when he was the governor of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Gen Babar told me that he had earlier had been assigned by Z A Bhutto to look after the friends from Afghanistan and so over time, as Major General he became the Special Assistant in the first PPP government and thereafter he became the Interior Minister and fully utilised his influence to create the Taliban and had a real good hold on Afghan leaders.

Soon, he was able to gather the entire leadership of Taliban over lunch along with some Western diplomats. He was assisted by Maj Gen Zulfiqar and Maj Gen Abdul Aziz who became famous after their role in the coup against PM Nawaz Sharif. I worked with Gen Babar closely and witnessed the emergence of the Taliban against Northern Taliban, hence, he decided to consolidate a group against the Northern Alliance led by Ahmed Shah Masood who was operating under the control of India and Iran. Later on, the Northern Alliance also started getting the support of the US. The Taliban not only resisted the Northern Alliance but the Taliban along with our support took over the control of Afghanistan as well. The Taliban government was recognised by the USA and Saudi Arabia as they were honoured by President George Bush senior in the White House who had also dealt with the Afghanistan desk as former Deputy Director of CIA.

It was a huge blunder by the Taliban to push Gulbuddin Hekmatyar away and invite Osama Bin Laden to assist them. Hekmatyar got exiled after the Taliban came to power in 1996 and drove him out of the country. Around the same time, Osama Bin Laden made his entry in Afghanistan, aboard a chartered flight on May 18, 1996 and forged a close relationship with Mullah Omar. Osama Bin Laden was already on the CIA radar from Sudan but he managed to get out of Sudan and reached Afghanistan via Egypt. He was able to sabotage surveillance and even got the fuel for his C-130. His friendship with Mullah Omar was in fact the beginning of the downfall of the Taliban regime. During that time, the life and circumstances here in my own country had forced me to flee the country via Afghanistan after a life attempt on me. This was the time when Afghanistan was under the full control of the Taliban.

A friend of mine from Peshawar who had also close relations with the Taliban facilitated me to travel through Afghanistan and helped me in flying to Europe. I had observed myself that the Pakistani Taliban were in an advanced warzone when I was there under the cover of a journalist. The downfall of the Taliban started after 9/11 when Shaheed Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto and I were in exile. She had assessed that the US attack on Afghanistan was imminent to get Osama Bin Laden and she asked me to use my old contacts to avert this forthcoming war as this could spread around both sides of the border. I contacted a very close associate of the Taliban who was even in direct contact with Mullah Omar and was also close to some important Middle Eastern countries.

My friend spoke to Mullah Omar and he agreed to hand over Osama Bin Laden to a third country for trial. When Shaheed Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto conveyed this to the Americans through a friendly country, this proposal was declined with the observation that it was too late. It was around the same time when Gen Musharraf was forced to agree to all the demands of the Americans. Shaheed Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto and I could not avert this war; the Afghan friend is still a well-respected political leader of Afghanistan and perhaps he might become the head of interim government soon if all stakeholders agree.

Ayman Al-Zawahiri (another hard-core terrorist) who succeeded Osama as head of the Al Qaeda was also found to be hiding in Pakistan’s tribal areas; the world must be aware of who Al Zawahiri was as he was involved in the murder of Anwar Sadat upon orders from Islamic Jihad Group. After he graduated as a surgeon from Egypt, in 1980–81, Al Zawahiri arrived in Pakistan as a relief worker with the Red Crescent in Peshawar, Pakistan, where he treated refugees affected by the Afghan War. During that time he made several crossborder trips into Afghanistan to conspire for the killing of Anwar Sadat, where he witnessed the warfare firsthand.

I had then arrested young Al Zawahiri who managed to escape with the help of the director of Red Crescent Cairo; uncle of Yousif Ramzi, namely Zahid Al Sheikh and elder brother of Khalid Al Sheikh. Al Zawahiri is one of the most dangerous terrorists and may reemerge if he is still alive. The triangular bond of Afghan Taliban, TTP and Al Qaeda grew at the cost of defeat of the Taliban/Zaliman unity whereas Hekmatyar got refuge in Iran and Osama Bin Laden managed to escape via Tora Bora.

The rise and fall of Taliban on both sides is now history and in fact, the original hardcore leaders are the Haqqanis. The wheel of time is very strange and time itself chooses the destinies of the nation and individuals.

Taliban growth was phenomenal and now they are no more like the old united Taliban. They have forgotten how Pakistan brought them up and trained them. Unfortunately, today’s Taliban leadership is closer to India instead.

Pakistan has given its blood, refuge to economic support and assistance to Afghanistan, and now when Pakistan should have been honoured, the Taliban have joined hands with its enemies. All the Afghan stakeholders need to use their abilities to bring peace to their country.

The Article was published in The Nation on June 29, 2021, link to the original article: https://nation.com.pk/29-Jun-2021/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-taliban

A resurgent Turkey, the US and Afghanistan by Senator Rehman Malik

It must have been somewhere around 2008 when I had my first meeting in my capacity as Interior minister with Recep Tayyib Erdogan. Of course, back then he was Turkey’s prime minister. As we sat in his modest office in Ankara, I was struck by his firm grasp of international relations, particularly the situation in Afghanistan and the Middle East.

He was a pragmatic politician. I had read a lot about him. One thing that stood out was the smart move of forming a new party with a secular outlook to reduce tension with the Turkish establishment. He demonstrated immense wisdom in handling the situation.

The years after the Arab Spring proved difficult for the region, including Turkey, as the militant group Daesh (or ISIS) gained global prominence in Iraq. It was and remains an overtly anti-Shia outfit.

During a sitting with then President Abdullah Gul, I remember urgently warning that Daesh would ultimately prove a bigger monster than either the Taliban or Al Qaeda. The former of Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hammad Bi Khalifa Al Thani, was also briefed on this development and I must appreciate how he opposed the oppression of the Syrian people. He also called on UN forces to play their role in Syria during the OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) summit in Mecca back in 2012.

Turkey has long faced multiple tensions on the international front, namely with Russia, China and the US. Yet with Erdogan in the presidential seat — things took an upward turn. Not least after the transfer of parliamentary powers to the head of state. Thus, Erdogan rebuilt the tetchy relationship with Washington that floundered even more after the failed military coup in July 2016. Ankara pointed fingers at General Akin Ozturk and US-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen.

Once the Treaty of Lausanne expires — Turkey’s modern borders will be rendered obsolete. If Ankara reclaims lost territories, including claims to the Black Sea, it would entirely upend the current geo-strategic map. We will have to wait and see the potential American response

The trust level between NATO member Turkey and the Biden administration has improved to the extent that the US has handed over the running and security of Kabul airport to Ankara. This bolstering of ties is not welcomed by Russia or China.

Elsewhere, Saudi-Turkish relations have always fluctuated and the mistrust dates back to the Ottoman era. During the peak of which, the holy cities of Mecca and Medina fell under Ottoman protection until the Arab revolt of 1916, which marked the beginning of the end of the Ottoman Empire. This battle left deep scars in the Middle East and the Arab states gradually came under heavy European influence. The Ottoman Caliphate ended and Palestine came under British rule, leading to the eventual creation of the State of Israel.

After their defeat, the Ottomans were coerced into signing the Treaty of Treaty of Sèvres in 1920, which eventually fell. It was replaced in 1923 by the 100-year Treaty of Lausanne, signed by: representatives of New Turkish Govt and Britain, France, Italy, Japan, Greece, Romania, and the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes (Yugoslavia). The treaty formally concluded the end of World War I. It stipulated that Turkey:

• Relinquish claims to its former Arab provinces;
• Recognise British and Italian possession of Cyprus and the Dodecanese, respectively;
• Surrender claims to the Bosporus Strait — linking the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara and, by extension, the Mediterranean Sea — as an international maritime corridor. Turkey was also prohibited from receiving transit fees from ships passing through;
• Allow the Turkish Straits, the waterway between the Aegean and Black seas to open up to all shipping;
• Be barred from oil exploration (several exemptions notwithstanding) for the next 100 years.

Once this treaty expires, these provisions will likely be reversed and, in theory, Turkey’s modern borders will be rendered obsolete. If Ankara were to reclaim lost territories, including claims to the Black Sea, it would entirely upend the current geo-strategic map. We will have to wait and see the potential American response.

Such historic context is important in the expected eventuality of a treaty on Afghanistan; not lasting 100 years but at least five years to restore peace to that country.

South Asia is already sitting on two volcanoes: Afghanistan and Kashmir. The Middle East is still burning after the failure of the Arab Spring. One can only imagine how the world powers will react towards a resurgent Turkey. As for now, the handing over of Kabul airport to Turkey appears to represent a new era in US-Turkish ties. It is therefore hoped that Ankara and Washington along with Pakistan will work closely together for Afghan peace and rehabilitation.

The article was published in Daily Times on June 25, 2021, Link to the original article : https://dailytimes.com.pk/778725/a-resurgent-turkey-the-us-and-afghanistan/

‘Sadiq and Amin’ and a humiliated Parliament by Senator A. Rehman Malik

 

According to Articles 62 and 63 of the (1973) Constitution, a person may be qualified or elected as a Member of Parliament provided he has adequate knowledge of Islam and is essentially ‘Sadiq and Amin’ (Honest and Righteous). In literal terms, Sadiq is a qualitative metaphor used for one who has never spoken a lie. Amin refers to one who has never breached anyone’s trust.

By contrast,what happened on the floor of the National Assembly on June 15 remains a matter of shame for the entire political elite of our country. It is not the first time that our national pride has been dealt a severe blow and the basis of our Constitution and religion undermined in this way.

An MNA is elected to lead his or her constituents and not to hurl insults; and that, too, in a place that is a source of legislation. For when rule of law is absent from Parliament — the highest law-making body of the country — then how can we expect it to take root anywhere else?

When we examine closely our Islamic laws, we find that they prohibit ridiculing others. The Prophet (PBUH) said: “A believer is never a person who scoffs at others, calls them names, or utters vulgar and obscene phrases.” Abu Ad-Dardaa also narrated that the Prophet (SAW), said: “People who curse others will never be witnesses or intercessors on the Day of Judgment”. He (PBUH) also said: “Do not curse each other and do not summon the wrath of Allah or His Hell on each other”. All the Hadiths indicate that verbally abusing people, belittling them, and cursing them are prohibited acts in Islam. A true Muslim or a believer is a decent person who uses polite phrases when he talks. According to Islam, being patient and forgiving people is far better in the eyes of Allah, as Allah says: “But indeed if any show patience and forgive, that would truly be an exercise of courageous will and resolution in the conduct of affairs.” (Al-Shooraa: 43)

Let us see how the custodian of the House, political parties, and ECP view this highly damaging conduct by public representatives on the floor of Parliament. Let there be a commission to investigate all unethical codes of conduct with a view to recommending disciplinary action

Unfortunately, in the world around us, on the streets, at official organisations, or popular gatherings, we often hear people ridiculing and reviling others. These parliamentarians — in fact, our policymakers, ministers, state ministers, ministerial committee heads, and heads of parliamentary committees and MNAs — openly hurled insults at each other while the custodian of the House remained helpless before MNAs from his own party. I would like to question under which moral authority will they chair meetings as per their respective positions? This unruly lot is not only from the government side but also from the opposition benches of provincial assemblies, the NA, and Senate. Such ‘instalments’ have now become so routine that TV channels broadcast them as reality show entertainment. The recent episode on Express TV remain freshly imprinted while this new and savage stand-up comedy show has diminished respect for parliamentarians in the eyes of the common man.

The public elects these people as their representatives to resolve their issues, not to add to their range of profanities. I hope the speaker will receive a copy of the unbecoming transcript of remarks shouted by both the government and opposition and will consider hanging it in the galleries or else on the wall of the NA as reminder to future generations about the real Sadiqs and Amins of our nation. Pardon me for asking the whole of Parliament if they really think that the ECP (Election Commission Pakistan) and the Supreme Court will remain silent on this issue?

The SC may wish to consider reinterpreting the existing constitutional clauses of Sadiq and Amin. For it seems as if public representatives have forgotten about the provisions for disqualification. Parliament has been held hostage by its own members under successive governments. A few verses for Pakistan’s political Sadiq and Amin to ponder:

“I am a public representative and declared Sadiq & Amin

I can abuse anyone since I am Sadiq & Amin

I can hurl insults across the floor being Sadiq &Amin

I have license to ridicule and scoff as Sadiq & Amin

I dance to the tune of rudeness as Sadiq & Amin

I am openly corrupt as Sadiq & Amin

I spill my branded curses as Sadiq & Amin

My leaders like my savagery as Sadiq & Amin

I am an electable Sadiq & Amin,

Not some poor villager Sadiq & Amin”

My few poetic lines can well explain the mindset of some of the non-Sadiq and non-Amin members of Parliament. Thus, the country, myself included, has the right to ask why our lawmakers saw fit to throw budget pamphlets at each other. Thereby degrading both Parliament and the Constitution.

No Pakistani by the name of Sadiq or Amin from a village or even the middle-class will ever make it all the way to Parliament while these electable and duly rubber-stamped Sadiq and Amin types hold forth.

We desperately need educated, honest and righteous and decent individuals across the class divide to take up the mantle of Mr Sadiq and Mr Amin. Naturally, the proceedings of the House cannot be challenged but the Constitution and the Chair have the right to defend.

Let us see how the custodian of the House, political parties, and ECP view this highly damaging conduct by public representatives on the floor of Parliament. Let there be a commission to investigate all unethical codes of conduct with a view to recommending disciplinary action; involving disqualification on the grounds of not being Sadiq and Amin. For this license to abuse — just to make respective leaderships happy — must come to an end.

I have long cautioned that Parliament is being degraded before the eyes of the public since some representatives do not represent the people but land before the House due to some ‘extra’ qualifications. Moreover, Pakistan’s democracy is weakened when political parties hardly select candidates on merit. If this is to change, we must introduce new legislation to govern political parties; including open elections for every in-house portfolio. This is a must to effect accountability within the party structure itself. Let there be real democracy under real leadership.

I could write an entire book on leg-pulling and how capable candidates are blocked, all with proof. If you want a Parliament that pays heed to decorum then the political parties must free themselves from the grip of the electables; especially as the latter are seasonal birds who are always ready to fly to the land of opportunity. This is why one can always see electables sitting in the cabinet holding important portfolios while their spouses oftentimes act as benefactors.

We need a Parliament that is home to good manners and propriety. Not one where ministers and lawmakers feel free to dance on desks right next to the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition. We all must share collective responsibility for this sorry state of affairs.

The article was published in Daily Times on June 18, 2021, link to the original article... https://dailytimes.com.pk/774698/sadiq-and-amin-and-a-humiliated-parliament/

Beseeching President Joe Biden for peace by Senator A. Rehman Malik

 

The Afghan nation, from a child to an old man have been suffering for ages. The children born during the beginning of the war have now become grandparents themselves. Young children are fearful of a possible eruption of civil war post-withdrawal of American forces.

I have been giving my point of view through both electronic and printed media on the ground realities in Afghanistan. It is a fact that the suffering of our economy today can be attributed to the war in Afghanistan which has been depleting our resources both directly and indirectly. We are victims of the Afghan-USSR war followed by the growth of the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and Daish which have been eroding our system. Hence peace in Afghanistan means peace in Pakistan.

As of now, the Taliban control 52 percent of the territory of Afghanistan as they have full control over 27 districts. The remaining 297 districts are partly controlled by both the government and Taliban.

The leadership council of the Taliban, known as the Rahbari Shura, makes decisions for all “political and military affairs” of the Emirate. It is currently led by Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada who is a new Amir in place of Mullah Umer. Haibattullah (is supported by his 3 main deputies, currently Mullah Muhammad Yaqoub, Mullah Omar’s son, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar; and Sirajuddin Haqqani who is also acting head of the Haqqani Network and supervises the insurgency in Afghanistan; he is the most powerful like his father Mulana Jalaluddin Haqqani.

The Taliban’s initiative to include Afghanistan’s ethnic minorities in the new coalition emerging in Kabul has been viewed favourably by Tehran and it can be clearly seen that the ice is melting between the two-arch rivals. Moreover, since the beginning of peace talks with the United States, several top Taliban leaders from the negotiating team have been to Tehran for consultations. It is also reported that Iran’s special representative on Afghanistan, Mohammad Ebrahim Taherian, has regularly interacted with the Taliban’s political leaders, as well as other Afghan political leaders, including Salahuddin Rabbani, the head of Afghanistan’s Jamiat-e Islami, and Abdul Rasul Sayyaf, the chief of the Islamic Dawah organisation and former head of Islami Ittehad (Mujahideen Group).

These groups are all around Kabul and the battle for takeover can be triggered at any time. These factions are within the radius 20 to 25 kilometres and Kabul stands encircled today, creating fearful nights for the general public.

The Taliban assert their authority through checkpoints along key roads across the whole country. The Taliban members stop every passing car and passenger and question them, searching for people linked to the government and if they find any, they hand them over to their courts which is creating unrest. The Taliban believe victory is theirs and they feel they have won the war against America and are confident that they will have control over the capital within the next few months.

It is worth noticing that since the past year, the Taliban have also stopped attacks on international forces following the signing of the withdrawal agreement with the US, but they are consistently fighting the Afghan government. The question arises as to what mind has America made as the last strategy and it is to be seen which side the Americans will throw their weight behind; the Taliban or Ghani plus the Northern Alliance.

The US does not need any bases in Pakistan or Afghanistan. The US needs bay permission for warships to cover the range for their cruise missiles to any target in Afghanistan which will once again bring Afghanistan under fire. The anti-American group will once again start their terrorist activities and we will be back to square one once again.

Let us presume that Kabul falls in the hands of the Taliban, that too with the consent of the US and other allies, then Pakistan will have to plan its strategy. It is no more a secret that Indian influence has crept in Afghanistan and it is giving $1 billion annually for its lobbies to help them keep a strong foothold. In addition, senior leaders of the Northern Alliance are regularly visiting India to seek guidance from the Modi government.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, a power-sharing arrangement would be beneficial in Afghanistan for every stakeholder. Pakistan cannot afford to have a pro-Indian, single-faction government.

Pakistan needs to make an effort before the fall of Kabul to avoid the complete control of government in the hands of this faction as the national government can be neutral to bring peace back to Afghanistan and keep better relations with its neighbours. I feel that passing a resolution or any religious approach by any country will be no more effective to convince the factions in Afghanistan for peace.

Pakistan is the most critical regional player when it comes to ending the war in Afghanistan and the role of COAS Gen Qamar Javed Bajawa has been appreciated by all stakeholders including the US. The Taliban will not take any pressure from any stakeholder and their violence will increase in Afghanistan with every passing day.

We need to see how now the US adopts its further policy with reference to Afghanistan. We must be clear in our minds that the US wants to have a strategic presence in this region and it can go to any extent to achieve its policy line. We need to see if the US wants Pakistan as a strategic partner to bring peace or wants to repeat the policy of acquiring logistic support via ground or via sea. According to sources, US warships are already in the gulf near Pakistan since it already has permission from Gen Musharraf to use Pak airspace.

I once again repeat my suggestions with some additions to bring long-term peace after the withdrawal of US forces:

The US needs to consider ensuring a one-to-one meeting of President Ashraf Ghani and Sirajuddin Haqqani with the pre-agreed future roadmap for the sake Afghan nation. The member states must ask the UN to deploy a peacekeeping mission to enforce peace. The US must consider working to establish an interim government in Afghanistan representing all factions and the present government and others. There should be an undertaking from the Taliban/others that they will not dismantle female schools and there should be a general amnesty. Let the interim government be there for one year and it should be headed by a mutually agreed non-controversial leader equally respected and having a good working relationship with all stakeholders.

India must be kept away from this withdrawal strategy to avoid its negative role. Pakistan, China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia may be taken on board as observers of peace. Sufficient rehabilitation funding should be announced for the rebuilding of basic infrastructure and educational institutions that have been destroyed in years of violence and war. The UN must pass a resolution prohibiting certain actions by the Taliban-led coalition government such as bombing, harassment, ethnic killing and violence against women etc.

My final advice for the American administration is to withdraw from Afghanistan but work out a withdrawal plan to block the internal tribal war before actually leaving Afghanistan.

I firmly believe that a common strategy adopted by the US and Pakistan can bring long term peace. Crushing the Afghan Taliban will bring destruction and this will not save the capital. It is likely that the US will continue to ask Pakistan to do more again while keeping India as its preferred nation. The US needs to show more sincerity towards Pakistan in view of the past sacrifices of Pakistan in this war of terror. I hope President Joe Biden will hear the cries of Afghan children for peace.

The Article was published in The Nation on June 18, 2021, link to the article: https://nation.com.pk/18-Jun-2021/beseeching-president-joe-biden-for-peace 

New budget — new wizardry? by Senator A. Rehman Malik

Pakistan’s annual budget is more of a political event than a national endeavour for some betterment. This has been the case since 1952 when we were first forced to go to the IMF. Since had taken loan from the IMF for the first time and ever since – we have become accustomed to begging. We have now chalked up 26 loans from the International Monetary Fund.

Nevertheless, the nation is eagerly looking forward to the incoming budget as it is the most important economic policy document for a country, affecting the lives of every Pakistani.

Let us wait and observe the skills of the new financial team as they try and get these stringent IMF conditions relaxed.

Unfortunately, Pakistan had already made commitment to the Fund to increase FBR taxes by a massive Rs1.272 trillion (almost 2.8 per cent of GDP) in the coming budget 2021 and raise electricity rates by almost Rs4.97 per unit in the remaining three months of this year.

The former Finance minister, Hafeez Sheikh, gave an undertaking to continue making electricity tariff adjustments this year on monthly, quarterly and annual basis by 36 percent increase and imposition of new taxes equal to minimum 1.2 percent of GDP or Rs570 billion in the new budget. Now let us see what success the FBR has achieved? And what are the tax collection project figures for the next year?

As a political worker, I condemn the IMF for forcing Pakistan to increase the electricity tariff. This is a grave ‘injustice’ as the price hike has already crippled our economy and increased corruption. The current IMF programme is a difficult one and such conditions also incur political costs

FBR collects 10-15 percent of taxes every year. Yet the IMF wants us to increase the tax net to 30 percent, which is unrealistic will crush the common man. The government has also agreed to bring down the current year’s development programme to Rs1.169tr against budgeted target of Rs1.324tr; the indirect taxes committed to be increased from Rs1000 billion to Rs1300 billion which would exacerbate growing inequality. If realised, this will trigger further price hikes and indirect taxes will start taking a toll on the ordinary people. Imposing invisible indirect taxes through manipulation of statistical data is akin to cosmetic-surgery – giving the appearance of an ‘Awami’ budget. The government should avoid fudging the books and must announce withdrawing control of Statistics division from the Planning ministry. It should be placed under the Council of Common Interests to allow autonomy in terms of data collection and analysis. The government has also made a commitment with IMF to not consider any tax exemption or tax amnesty in gas tariffs in future. All of these taxes and increased tariffs will lead to price hike. The present Finance Minister has to be a hard negotiator with the IMF to get the maximum relief and we must renegotiate the terms of repayment with World Bank and try to have secure deferrals in light of the ongoing pandemic.

As a political worker, I condemn the IMF for forcing Pakistan to increase the electricity tariff. This is a grave “injustice” as the price hike has already crippled our economy and increased corruption. The current IMF programme is a difficult one and such conditions also incur political costs. Pakistan doesn’t currently have the capacity to raise its tariffs or taxes under the Fund scheme – hence we have to renegotiate the terms with the IMF. Tariff increase is not the only way to increase revenue.

Even the PTI’s ‘financial wizard’ — Asad Umar — stepped down from the cabinet after returning from the US after negotiating the IMF deal. This left many feeling dismayed, since immediately after assuming power, the PTI pressed the panic button on the economy.

I will also have to warn the government and lawmakers of the dire consequences that will be suffered over the next four years if the incumbent government is not able to take GDP growth to 5 percent. Even the man that the PTI had presented as its ‘financial wizard’ – Asad Umar – stepped down from the cabinet when he returned from Washington after negotiating a deal with the IMF. The decision left many feeling dismayed, since immediately after assuming power, the PTI pressed the panic button on the economy. The impression that PTI had given to Pakistan and to the rest of the world was that Mr Umar was the man to fix things. This image was tarnished badly. Under his short nine-month tenure as Finance Minister, the growth rate had fallen by 2 percent, inflation had already hit close to 10 ten percent, gas prices had jumped up by over 40 percent and the Pakistani currency was constantly depreciating. Despite giving such a heavy financial blow to the economy, Asad Umar could not carry on with IMF deal as he said himself that he didn’t want to tell the country what the IMF thought should happen to the rupee. They envisaged inflation at 19 percent and the discount rate was supposed to go to 21 to 22 per cent. Now that deal has already been struck with the IMF through another Finance minister, one can imagine the stern conditions that IMF might have attached.

Pakistan’s external debt servicing will remain over $10 billion a year for the next two years.

According to research conducted by IRR Pakistan, if we want to get rid of the IMF and its stringent conditions – we will need to follow the example set by Turkey as it stabilised its economy and escaped the IMF debt trap. Recep Tayyip Erdogan became prime minister when Turkey was a country that suffered from constant economic blows despite the fact that the rest of the world was doing fine economically. Now Turkey is thriving and its economy is still growing while the world is suffering the long-term effects of the 2008 economic crisis.

During both his premiership and presidency, Erdogan increased Turkey’s GDP some 9-fold while that of neighbouring Greece remained almost stagnant. Over the last 15 years, Turkey has become home to a formidable manufacturing industry. Both president Gul and then PM and now the president played pivotal role and brought new model of governance by bringing back the presidential system where president Gul formed his own party.

In his first year of Govt, in 2001 he ended “State of Emergency” (Olaganustu Hal) in east of Turkey. This increased the investments to the east, inflation rate decreased to around 7-10 percent that decreased interest rates and this boosted consumption in all manners and credit cards and consumer loans became available for the masses.  Long term credits became available like mortgage and mortgage system became available after 2005-2006 and this helped people to build better houses, accumulations in treasury (dollar, gold) increased by 4 times.  Long term international credits became available as before Erdogan, Turkey was craving IMF for 1-2 billion dollars with high interest rates. Today, Turkey can borrow money with payment over a generous 30 years. IMF offered 40 billion dollars in 2011 but Turkey rejected it.

In Pakistan, with 14 percent inflation rate, there is a 30 percent rise in poverty, with 80.5 million people hovering just above the poverty line.

Following are the steps required to revive the economy:

Renegotiations with the IMF are needed. The government should focus on revising targets.

There should be a target for a 1 percent decrease in the budget deficit. The target for a growth rate of 18-20 percent of FBR revenues.

There should be an increase in the development budget and development spending should be raised by 20 percent.

It is important for the Finance Minister to do something on the expenditure side as money should not only be released rather it should be spent somewhere, which requires capacity building.

There should be a visible focus of spending on the projects which actually generate revenue, just not on useless things like “langar khanas and Tiger or Panda Forces”.

The federal government should not spend on provincial projects as these should be a provincial matter.

Debt to the private sector should be increased.

The budget strategy is overlooking private investment without which the high targets of job creation cannot be attained.

The tax administration should be free from political influence like in the US and other developed countries, and for that, the autonomy for tax body should be considered. There is no harm in copying the Bangladesh model which was able to increase the growth rate above 9 percent in 2019 and decreased inflation to 5.59 percent with a very slight and negligible increase to 5.65 percent in 2020 despite dealing with a pandemic.

The budget for Ehsaas/BISP programme needs to needs to be enhanced, doubled at least. Small industries programmes like adopted in the Philippines and which focus on self-employment should be replicated here.

The government should focus on privatisation agenda for state-owned enterprises that are not well managed by the government, while ensuring transparency. In the long term, a sharp focus should be on investment on healthcare and education which are most ignored sectors in our country. The crippled health sector has been fully exposed during the pandemic.

Feasible suggestions:

1. The salaries of the government servants should be increased by 25 – 75 percent.
2. Government should announce a special package for the private/daily wages employees for enhancement of their salaries by their employers.
3. Government should allocate special funds for self-employment business opportunities enabling those who have lost their jobs due to COVID-19, to get start their own small business.
4. Government should allocate at least Rs.150billion for construction of temporary hospitals for treatment of COVID-19 patients and for purchase of medical equipment, protective kits (PPEs) for doctors, paramedical staff, army, rangers, police and other law enforcement agencies who are giving duty on the front line during COVID-19.
5. The salaries of the medical and Para-medical staff should be enhanced up to 75 percent. The salaries of the media worker be enhanced by 50 percent.
6. The government has allocated only Rs.100billion under Corona Stimulus Package for fertiliser subsidy, loan remissions and other relief to the farmers, which may be enhanced to Rs.100 billion.
7. A Special Tax Relief Package should be given for agriculture i.e. wheat crops and livestock, dairy farming etc. to provide relieve to small farmers. Our future lies in agriculture and hence farmers should be supported with good economic packages as incentive to increase the yield and to modernise the agriculture farming.
8. Government should allocate more funds for management of rain water reservoirs in every Distt as national water conversionary program. 
9. Special funds should also be allocated for construction of new small/mini dams in every dist. like China.
10. Government should enhance the budgetary allocation for on-line education development programme through IT/Internet access, especially in remote areas.
11. The budgetary allocation of Higher Education Commission (HEC) should be enhanced to Rs.100 billion
12. Government should allocate funds for improvement in the aviation sector and to upgrade airports all over the country. we need to revive our national airline

It seems to me that the current budget is nothing but another annual exercise on fudged  statistical figures just to complete the usual budget formalities. The government has no vision to steer the country out of these economic crises. Thus, the government has been unable to decide the amicable course to control the pandemic. This fact will likely be reflected in the budget as there has been no talk of extra budgetary provisions for health sector allocated to control Covid-19 which is the real issue of today. Moreover, the budget is likely to fail to  provide some handsome allocations to the health, poverty elevation and education sector.

The shrieking announcements of great economic achievements in terms of  higher growth rate and lowering of inflation figures will automatically be muted with the four weeks of implementation of new budget.

Let us hope and pray that we get rid of IMF which is eroding our system as we inch towards bankruptcy.

The government needs to take note of the observation of the Chief Justice Pakistan where he observed that the salaries of government servants are being paid through IMF loans which means we are running our administration on IMF ‘handouts’. Whatever next?

The article was published in Daily Times on June 10, 2021, link to the original article: https://dailytimes.com.pk/769459/new-budget-new-wizardry/

Budget 2021–22: Some proposals by Senator A. Rehman Malik

 

All factions of the society are eagerly looking forward to the incoming budget 2021-2022 as it is the most important policy document for a country affecting the lives of every Pakistani.

The government has agreed to bring down the current year’s development programme to Rs1.169tr against the budgeted target of Rs1.324tr. The indirect taxes are committed to be increased from Rs1000 billion to Rs1300 billion; adding to dangerous levels of inequality. The government should avoid playing with the fudged figures and also should announce to withdraw the control of the Statistics Division from the Ministry of Planning Development and place it under The Council of Common Interests (CCI). The government has also made a commitment with the IMF to not consider any tax exemption or tax amnesty in gas tariffs in the future. All of these taxes and increased tariffs lead to the price hike. The present Finance Minister has to be a hard negotiator with the IMF to get the tax relief and we must renegotiate the repayment with the World Bank and try to have the payment deferred due to the ongoing pandemic.

Even the man that the PTI had presented as its financial wizard, Asad Umar stepped down from the cabinet when he returned from Washington after negotiating a deal with the IMF. The decision left many with a feeling of dismay, since immediately after taking over power, the PTI had pressed the panic button on the economy. The impression that PTI had given to Pakistan, as well as the rest of the world, that Asad Umar was the man to fix the economy, was tarnished badly. Under his only 9 months of tenure as Finance Minister (Finance Messiah), the growth rate had fallen by 2 percent, inflation had already hit almost ten percent, gas prices had jumped up by over 40 percent and the Pakistani currency was constantly depreciating.

If we want to get rid of the IMF and its stringent conditions, we need to follow the example set by Turkey as it stabilised its economy and got away with the IMF trap. Tayyip Erdoğan became prime minister when Turkey was a country that suffered from constant economic blows despite the fact that the rest of the world was doing fine economically. Now Turkey is thriving and its economy is still growing while the world is suffering from an economic crisis since 2008.

In Pakistan, with a 14 percent inflation rate, there is a 30 percent rise in the poverty rate, 80.5 million people are standing on the edge of the poverty line due to which 15 to 20 people are ending their lives by committing suicide daily. Renegotiations are needed to be done with the IMF; the Government should focus on revising the targets with them. There should be a target for a 1 percent decrease in the budget deficit. There should be an increase in the capacity for the development budget by raising the development spending by 20 percent. The Finance Minister needs to do something on the expenditure side as money should not only be released rather it should be spent somewhere, which requires capacity building. There should be a visible focus of spending on the projects which actually generate revenue, just not on useless things like langar khanas and tiger or panda forces. The Federal Government should not spend on provincial projects as they should be a provincial subject.

In the long term, a sharp focus should be on investment in human health and education which are the most ignored sectors. The crippled health sector has been fully exposed during the present Coronavirus pandemic.

I would like to suggest the following for this budget:

The salaries of the government servants should be increased by 75 percent. The government should announce a special package for the private and daily wages employees for enhancement of their salaries by their employers. It should allocate special funds for self-employment business opportunities enabling those who have lost their jobs due to COVID-19, to get start their own small business. It should allocate at least Rs.150 billion for the construction of hospitals/medical centres for the treatment of COVID-19 patients and for the purchase of modern medical equipment, protective kits (PPEs) for doctors, paramedical staff, army, rangers, police and other law enforcement agencies who are on the frontline during COVID-19.

The salaries of the medical and Para-medical staff should be enhanced up to 75 percent. The salaries of the media workers shall be enhanced by 50 percent by their respective employers. The government has allocated only Rs100 billion under the corona stimulus package for fertiliser subsidy, loan remissions, and other relief to the farmers, which may be enhanced to Rs.100 billion. A special tax relief package should be given for agriculture i.e. wheat crops and livestock, dairy farming, etc. to provide relief to small farmers. Our future lies in agriculture and hence farmers should be supported with good economic packages as an incentive to increase the yield and to modernise agricultural farming. The government should allocate more funds for the management of rainwater reservoirs in every district as a national water conservation programme. Special funds should also be allocated for the construction of new small/mini dams in every district like China. The government should enhance the budgetary allocation for online education development programmes through IT/internet access, especially in remote areas. The budgetary allocation of the Higher Education Commission (HEC) should be enhanced to Rs100 billion. The government should allocate funds for improvement in the aviation sector and upgrade airports all over the country. The budget for LEAs must be doubled for their capacity building to ensure the rule of law. There should be a substantive increase in improving the investigation process by the provision of modern investigation tools and logistics to FIA and the Police. According to the Federal Ombudsman, the national overcrowding rate in Pakistan’s prisons is 134 percent so the government should allocate 5 billion for each province to improve jails standard and the food per jail manual. The government must finance easy loans for cheap housing schemes through house building corporations. Special enactment may be brought to save the people from defrauding from private house building finance companies if allowed in the private sector.

The article was published in The Nation on June 9, 2021, link to the original article-- https://nation.com.pk/09-Jun-2021/budget-2021-22-some-proposals

Let the world not burn by Senator A. Rehman Malik

 

The creator of this world has visibly set natural courses for every living thing. The earth has a delicate ecological system that can only work when all the different elements in the system are working in harmony. Mankind’s effect on the globe due to overpopulation and over utilization of resources has greatly upset this balance. The global annual temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.08°C (0.14°F) per decade since 1880 and over twice that rate (+0.18°C / +0.32°F) since 1981.

The increase in the rate of the increase is no doubt due to the effect of the industrial revolution and the pervading growth of industry and technology into every facet of an increasingly overpopulated society over the last 100 years.

Carbon emissions play a huge role in the overheating of the planet and there is a lot of information out there on the subject.

One point of note here, however, is that the meat and dairy industry emits 50 percent of the total global greenhouse gas emissions; livestock and its by-products. This is obviously a huge problem and one that is furthered by vested interests from the meat industry.

Water pollution is also a big issue and it is not just plastics, which only form a small percentage of the problem. Bigger issues are being caused by overfishing and destruction of coral reefs which increases global warming and increases sea temperatures. Furthermore, overfishing under the mask of sustainability is also destroying wildlife numbers to the point that they will not be able to repopulate. All this causes a great shift in the equilibrium of the planet’s system. We have gone some way in helping to repair the ozone layer, and this same zeal and effort should be used to combat climate change. Raised sea levels due to melting ice caps disrupting ecological cycles will not only affect the global climate but will also mean many coastal areas will become submerged over the next 100 years.

The overheating of the planet will lead to further extreme weather and will have a knock-on effect on everything from plants to animals to human life. Apart from helping to raise awareness and combating the sources of pollution we can also help the recovery process and mitigate some of the damage by raising awareness of the cutting down of the rainforest (which are like the lungs of our planet).

We talk of human rights, but we do not talk of the rights of trees and plants. Perhaps we should have a law of “Rights of trees” as a charter of the UN to help put a stop to the flattening of the rainforest in the Amazon to make room for farmland. Furthermore, no city and municipal authority should give permission for construction unless a certificate is produced by the environment division. Perhaps the city planners themselves can take into account the most eco-friendly ways of managing the city’s working, such as using electric cars etc. We need a combined effort of planting trees and reducing emissions. It all comes down to finding a way to live in balance and harmony with the earth that God gave us and we are a part of it. A multitude of the issues we face today stems from a wrong way of living, a greedy way of living. We need to save this planet, not just for us and our children, but all future generations, as the heavy burden has fallen on us. Global warming is speeding up and the 20 warmest years on record have all come since 1995. Furthermore, the last 2010s decade has had the five warmest years. Due to global warming many species, birds, habitats, trees, and aquatic life are badly hurt. Also, the hot conditions increased the demand for water. Moreover, environmental agencies responded to a 330 percent increase in incidents relating to drought. Besides, this type of thing won’t happen every year. However, they will occur more often and will be worse. According to scientists, it’s estimated that by 2040 there won’t be anything except the summer season. Over the last 20 years, the sea level has risen at roughly twice the speed of the preceding 80 years. In addition, the international community has sworn to avoid a rise of more than 2 Celsius in the average global temperature by 2100 in comparison to pre-industrial levels. But many scientists believe that the figures will be higher.

The consequences of climate change are devastating as what will happen if the earth’s temperature rises by a few degrees? For a short period, it does not affect badly but in the long run, the consequences will be devastating. To understand the long-term effects let me give you some points; tropics around the world will be drier and hotter and higher latitudes will be wetter and hotter.

The winters will be wetter and rainfall will become extreme. Also, the sea level will rise significantly, maybe up to a meter in places by 2100, as waters warm-up and take up more space and our glaciers and land-based ice sheets melt. Moreover, this rise is particularly scary, because while other climate change-driven effects like flooding or drought can do terrible harm, recovery from them is possible. However, recovery from sea levels is not possible.

To conclude, it is a scandal that there is nothing like climate change. Also, a lot has been done to tackle it. But we are still not doing all we could. Tackling climate change should be our primary agenda. It is not the main agenda because most people are busy with their lives and have other worries. We are partly neglecting it because the effect of changing climate tends to be invisible and incremental until they are suddenly disastrous. In addition, if words like “global warming” and “climate change” have become a turn-off for ordinary people then we should change these words. We should use words like a world underwater, mortgaged future, etc. We happen to have been born in an unenviable time where the debts of our fathers and forefathers are squarely upon our shoulders. We live in an age where the planet is suffering from an industrial revolution hangover. Of course, it is very hard to ask someone to change the way they live because the planet is suffering. Of course, it’s not all our fault. It’s the backlog of over a hundred years of industrial pollution and careless living, part out of ignorance and part out of carelessness. However as mentioned before, the damage done has only become significantly obvious in our lifetimes. So it not only becomes about our survival and the survival—I use the word carefully—of our children and their children’s children.

The article was published in The Nation on June 9, 2021, link to the https://nation.com.pk/05-Jun-2021/let-the-world-not-burnoriginal article: 

'Afghan Peace; an open letter to US President Joe Biden' by Senator A. Rehman Malik

 

Afghanistan is advancing towards the stone ages with the unending conflict with no gain. The Afghan Taliban are picking up more strength and the march towards Kabul has started. A recently returned western diplomat from Kabul called on me who informed me that Kabul is under the grip of panic and rumors.

According to him, Kabul is likely to be vacated by diplomats and other foreigners out of fear. This is very alarming and the world needs to halt further bloodshed of innocent Afghans. This could be stopped by the urgent initiative of world powers particularly the USA. I hope my views below may give some outline for immediate peace in Afghanistan. I am drawing the special attention of President Joe Biden who will consider my heartfelt points jolted below for his consideration of the non-ending killings of innocent Afghans in the unwarranted conflict.

Mr President, it is unfortunate that world powers including the US are having divergent views on agreeing to a one-point agenda which is nothing but “peace”, with no other option except peace. Your decision to withdraw the army is great but it will create a civil war if you withdraw troops without a pragmatic exit strategy to stop the civil war. This is a very important point for your consideration.

If the world powers do not converge on one point of bringing peace to Afghanistan, then I see the Taliban marching towards Kabul and every passing day becomes dangerous for the anti-Taliban/non-Taliban government and the Afghan society. The killing of innocent Afghans has started and if it continues there will be mass migrations of Afghan refugees to the neighbouring countries and we will witness another brand of the ‘Zaliman; creating trouble on a large level in the world.

It was very disappointing when I heard from the president of Afghanistan while giving an interview that “his death is only one bullet away”. This statement coming from the sitting president of Afghanistan, attacks on schools, attacks on the Afghan Army via Herat and the killing of 100 of soldiers and the blood of innocent Afghans and the pain of injured children are unable to attract the attention of the leaders of the world powers.

I will explain why I used the term ‘hired-Taliban’ and how an engineered justification was planned to justify drone attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan and these operations are on record with many other facts which were misrepresented. I owe it to the nation to disclose some hidden and shocking aspects /factors behind some such incidents which you all will see in my coming book. I only remind the world powers to not allow the unaccountable killings of poor Afghans and let them not become victims to world politics.

The American Army is still in Afghanistan and the innocent people are still being butchered from both sides to play a power game at the cost of the lives of innocent Afghans. I have seen fears in the eyes of young poor children who will be victims of the post-withdrawal scenario. Rich Afghans/diplomats will fly away but the common man once again will be the victim of the Taliban.

Pakistan must move with other friendly countries and bring a resolution for the deployment of UN peacekeeping forces in Afghanistan apart from an Islamic Force—if it exists or will ever come into being as per my proposal—to be based in Saudi Arabia.

Let the Taliban and the present Afghan government be forced to sit at the table to work out a peace transition and formation of the government as per the wish of the people of Afghanistan.

I know what is being thought in the capitals of the world power at the moment and world power frictions must come to end to bring peace in war-torn Afghanistan.

I propose that let the Pentagon under President Joe Biden take the initiative to take solid steps for peace in Afghanistan and let us set objectives to determine the unrest and killing of innocent people as enemies of humanity and avoid another round of killings in Afghanistan by engaging China, Russia, the UK, the UAE, Pakistan, and Iran for the sake of the tired Afghans from this useless war of 30 years.

My country has made tremendous sacrifices for peace in Afghanistan and I am myself witness to this non-ending war. Since the US invasion of Afghanistan, more than 60,000 Pakistani civilians, security forces personnel, and women and children have been killed across the country apart from huge devastation to its economy and basic infrastructure. Pakistani economy suffered a total loss of $126.79 billion due to the war on terror from 2001 to 2018. According to a Brown University study in 2019, the US had spent around $978bn since 9/11, and US forces have suffered more than 2,300 deaths and around 20,660 soldiers injured in action. President Ghani said in 2019 that more than 45,000 members of the Afghan security forces had been killed since he became president five years earlier. And, according to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), nearly 111,000 Afghan civilians have been killed or injured since it began systematically recording civilian casualties in 2009.

Pakistan has brought both the government and the Taliban on the table and it worked well and it is time for the US and the world to play a vital role in the restoration of peace in Afghanistan. So far, the world has failed as every effort for peace was signed with a longer timeline giving the latitude of time to anti-peace groups.

President Joe Biden, you are the right president with the right tone, and you have the ability to bring real peace to Afghanistan. The present army chief, Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, is fully determined to bring peace to Afghanistan. I am sure you would manage to bring peace with a proper strategy in collaboration with Pakistan. The region is looking towards you to use your influence to give peaceful Afghanistan to the world not with built but through your statesman skills.

Mr. President! Convert this tragedy of Afghanistan into happiness and enable the Afghan future generation to live their lives their way and not under the fears of roaring guns. Let reality take over perception and let us admit that the Afghan war was a useless exercise that created more terrorism than peace. Admitting a national mistake will make you look taller among world leaders.

The world wants peace in Afghanistan President Joe Biden, and you have the opportunity to win the hearts and minds of the Afghans in particular and the world in general by bringing peace there. I am sure you are not going to repeat firing the mother of the bombs on Afghanistan as the former US President Donald Trump did. Afghan has become a punching bag for many stakeholders and we hope it will end soon.

A highly rational and objective analysis would conclude that the US and its allies including former PM Tony Blair and many others would be regretting the launching of this so-called war on terror in Afghanistan. Let us rectify our mistakes in our lifetime as we seniors will not be there in the world to narrate the hidden secrets and realities to the historian.

It is time to converge the world powers to one-point agenda of peace and this proposal may come in UN by yourself and let a delegation of Afghan Taliban be invited to White House as has previously be done by President Reagan when delegates were regarded high as they were to be used against USSR as per the war plan. These are the same Taliban and now fighting against the USA and the Afghan government. There is no harm to invite them to the White House in the presence of President Ashraf Ghani who also owes to the USA having been educated in the USA on American scholarship. Let this trilateral meeting take place in the White House to resolve the Afghan issue once for all, and trust me Mr. President, your initiative to bring both the parties to the table in the White House will bring long-lasting peace in Afghanistan. This would be an honourable exit for the USA and everyone who remained associated with this war.

President Joe Biden is only one call away from all the above-mentioned leaders of the world power and your one call to every one of them will convince and converge on one page to stand with you to restore peace. I am sure the presidents of China and Russia will not say no to you and Pakistan is already working hard to get peace restored in Afghanistan in this peace process. Mr. President, please consider creating this forum of world powers for the sake of peace for the future generations of Afghanistan.

The Article was published in The Nation on June 1, 2021, Link to original article: https://nation.com.pk/01-Jun-2021/afghan-peace