Ukraine Invasion by Senator A. Rehman Malik

The recent statement of Tajik president in favor of the Tajik Taliban and against the Afghan Taliban should be taken seriously as Tajikistan is a very close strategic partner of the US whereas its economy and defence is fully dependent on Russia. The present Russian troops can take over Tajikistan in no time. The President of Tajikistan has backed Russia to invade Ukraine which is perhaps the only choice available with president Tajikistan.

There will be another migration of Tajik Taliban refugees from Tajikistan to Afghanistan which will create further problems.

The recent reports on the talks between Resident Joe Biden and President Vladimir Putin should be worrying for the world. According to the available reports, Russia is fully ready to attack Ukraine and the arrangements to attack on Ukraine are:

As per the intelligence reports the US has shared information regarding the buildup of Russian forces for rapid and large-scale military action against Ukraine. The American assessment is that Russia is planning to attack Ukraine within this month.

The troops could cross into Ukraine from Crimea, the Russian border, as well as via Belarus with about 100 battalion tactical groups. The strength comes to about 100,000 soldiers.

Moscow had also called up tens of thousands of reserves. It is also noteworthy that on February 1, 2022, Russia will enforce the national standard of urgent burials in wartime.

As per the US assessment, it is also felt that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely to happen. As per the intelligence reports, the US has shared information regarding the buildup of Russian forces for a rapid and large-scale military action against Ukraine. The American assessment on which the diplomacy has been briefed assumes that Russia is planning to attack Ukraine at the earliest. The troops could cross into Ukraine from Crimea.

Let us hope and pray that the dialogue in Geneva on Ukraine row is settled between the US and Russia. If it is not settled then serious troubles are expected to happen in central Asia and their effects will be on Afghanistan too if Tajikistan is treated like Crimea by Russia as being reported by the western media.

Russia will be replicating the attack on Ukraine like it did on Afghanistan in 1979 and also on Georgia in 2008. In the given situation, the US is likely to retain its geopolitical hold through its allies in Central Asia. The US has also announced sanctions against Russia if Ukraine is attacked and it has threatened other courses of action too. It is important to mention that the US has got a stronghold in Tajikistan with the following written understanding:

This war will be more harmful for Russia and it may become the signature for the next world war. The international community must ask why Russia wants to invade Ukraine.

President Putin perceives that Ukraine is a vital buffer for Russian security. In the last two centuries; invaders from Europe ravaged Russia. In 1812, Napoleon attacked Russia, defeating the Russian army and the German invasion of Russia was also into Ukraine in 1941.

American annoyance with Russia for interfering in Ukraine is quite obvious from the statement of the US administration. The Biden administration retreated its warnings to Russia over a potential invasion of Ukraine stating that, “We have been clear that there will be significant consequences for Russia’s attacks. The penalties would be coordinated closely with US allies and partners and would severely damage Russia’s economy. Such a move would also result in NATO capabilities being moved closer to Russia.”

The role of anti-Afghan Taliban factions in Tajikistan is becoming more visible by every passing day. The president of Tajikistan has said that his government will not recognise the Taliban rule over Afghanistan unless the ethnic Tajik minority is accorded a “worthy role” in running of the country by other countries. Emomali Rahmon made these remarks recently:

Afghanistan unrest has sparked a surge of eth no-patriotism among some quarters in Tajikistan. The democratic party of Tajikistan, earlier this month deployed the ethnic card by talking in a public appeal about how and what happening in Afghanistan was a “genocide of the Taliban carried out against non-Pashtun people.”

It is also very worrying that this invasion is not going to be restricted to Ukraine where 1/3rd of the Ukrainian are settled. The Tajik faction of Taliban has already migrated to Tajikistan where India is also giving full support to the Tajik faction of Taliban. The invasion of Tajikistan means that Russia will be at the doorstep of Afghanistan.

It is worrying for Pakistan that the invasion of Ukraine can further expand troubles in Tajikistan and the two world powers, Russia and the US may get in this conflict triggering world war 3. Obviously, this will energise the Tajik Taliban factions and the opposition within Tajikistan whereas Al-Qaeda, Daish and TTP Pakistan has already got some signatures with Tajik Taliban and Uzbek Taliban.

I had been advocating that TTP Pakistan is getting strengthened which will be ultimately used against Pakistan. TTP Pakistan was part of the removal of the fence from the border scheme. We already know that the Intelligence Chief of Nuristan, Afghanistan personally supervised the removal of the fence from the International Border (Durand Line) which clearly demonstrates the strategic understanding between the Afghan Taliban and TTP Pakistan against Pakistan.

I had been consistently advocating since years back that Daesh has made its ingress in Pakistan and it has its sleeping cells starting from Daska, Sialkot, Rahim Yar Khan, Karachi, Awaran and Quetta. 6 Daesh terrorists have been claimed to be killed by the Quetta Police. These killings of Daesh’s terrorists should be treated as clear warning about the presence of Daesh and their future attacks in Pakistan especially in Chitral, Gilgit Baltistan and other sensitive areas in the country.

The growing tense situation in central Asia will further energise the terrorists and we noticed that many terrorist acts have been claimed by Daesh in Pakistan.

The terrorists will get huge space from the unrest in central Asia and the anti Afghan Taliban.

The government will have more unrest and the unrest in Afghanistan is eventually detrimental for Pakistan.

The article was published in The Nation on  January 14, 2022. Link to the original article… https://nation.com.pk/14-Jan-2022/ukraine-invasion

Governance: Role of Parliament and institutions by Senator A. Rehman Malik

 

It is a big question as to how the national institutions and the parliament can play active role to implement the rule of law and improve the governance. The people of Pakistan are worried as our beloved country is passing through worst crisis and nation is witnessing political polarisation and bad governance. The parliament is failing to deliver and it may go in the history as a rubber stamp with hardly any initiative taken for the betterment of a common man. The state is “in the state of utter confusion” and country is directionless without adequate required policies. People need hope whereas the national future has been mortgaged before the IMF. Many present ministers are of the view that the govt is helpless before mighty IMF and the West including FATF. The individual interests have taken over the national interests in our present system. The country is being run on day-to-day basis without any solid long-term policies.

The state is utterly failing to protect the rights of a common man. The miseries of people are increasing by every passing day. A common man has been expecting some relief since long but every successive govt failed to deliver. Now, the price-hike has crushed the public even more and their cries can be heard in the streets of every city.

The present ruling party had unrealistically raised the hopes of the voters which could not be fulfilled due to a deteriorating economy. The people have seen the drop scene of their high hopes. Political polarisation is at its peak and the Parliament House looks like a wrestling ring. Now, our female parliamentarians have also jumped in this ring. We hear the sounds of slaps and abuses instead of voice of a common man. Let us seize the culture of indecency followed both by govt and opposition in the parliament. I think we need to demonstrate political maturity with a pragmatic and result-oriented approach in the parliament.

This continued confusion, ineffective parliament and non-serious govt may bring some serious setbacks to the country. Hence, we all have to think about how to set a doable path to steer the nation out of crisis with national unity. The economy is sliding down with no sign of recovery; foreign policy is suffering because of our international isolation; IMF and FATF hounds are pushing us to be defaulter and both Afghan and Pak Taliban (once called the children of Pakistan) have joined hands and their nefarious activities against Pakistan duly engineered by India and the West through Afghan soil. The removal of fence at Pak-Afghan border shows the intent of Afghan Taliban and the TTP. While we are facing numerous internal and external challenges, the govt seems to be confused and it is not coming up with an economic recovery plan and foreign policy to overcome these potential setbacks. The government must act wisely, should bring its proposed plans before the parliament and ask for collective national wisdom on the proposed national policies. The failure of our successive policies can be well judged from the data given below as we have not acted to correct our various public domains. The data reflects poor governance and poor management of state affairs.

Our rupee has fallen to 187 to a dollar during the present regime and it is likely to slide more after the mini-budget while price-hike will rise further. Unemployment rate has gone up to 5pc. Underemployment is also growing and return of Pak workers from abroad has further increased unemployment.

Growth rate went down from 5.8pc in 2018 to 0.5pc in 2020. Govt must watch to avoid fudged figures as this kind of fake statistical data will be harmful for future estimates. Our population has increased from 212.2 million to 225.18 million and there has been no policy to control it. Also while the population is increasing the resources are shrinking, hence we need to create a balance. We all need to worry as total foreign debt has risen from $61 billion to $116.3 billion. I am not adding our liabilities that have risen because of various bonds in the international market used to raise loans through the private banks. We have local debt in rupees increased from Rs24.95 trillion in 2018 to Rs39.9 trillion in 2021. This is our great economy. But, the govt still claims that there is no inflation. The printing of currency is one of the biggest sources of inflation. The poverty rate has increased from 4.4pc in 2018 to 39.2pc. It is highly undesirable increase as we are leading other countries in South Asia in poverty rate. Bangladesh has become the role model of economic growth and its textile industries have grabbed the world market. It will be shocking for the public to know that investment and expertise have flown from Pakistan to Bangladesh as the investors find Bangladesh more investor-friendly as compared to Pakistan. Similarly, the large-scale investment has flown to Sri Lanka also.

In 2019, infant mortality rate in Pakistan was at about 55.7 deaths per 1,000 live births due to malnutrition and it is increasing continuously. What else could be expected in a country with 39.2pc poverty rate. The funds committed for development are on the decrease and hence the development will go slow in coming years.

The above data reflects our non-professional and incompetent approach to handle our national affairs. I have mentioned only few areas of public domain. You will see similar frustrating negative data in other public and private sectors as well.

Will the govt make a study to identify its mistakes and control the deteriorating situation not repeating the mistakes which are creating negative statistical trends?

In fact, some of the economic and administrative indicators show inabilities of our past and present govts. We need to think seriously if the present system is itself a problem or we are incompetent to give good governance to our country. We must also study some other viable way of governance.

It is unfortunate that our authorities and political pandits either do not understand the meaning of a borrowed economy or they prefer to adopt the easy path of loaning to run the governmental and national affairs which has caused deep crises.

The state of confusion is widespread due to incompetency, inability, non-nationalistic approach, non-serious attitude, no accountability and immature attitude of govt and opposition in the parliament.

Nations do not survive with lip service as we need practical steps to give relief to the common man. We are very good in blame game which is equally applicable on leaders of both govt and opposition.

There have been a number of joint sessions. But during the present term of parliamentarians, these sessions gave no benefit to a common man in terms of law or policies except TA/DA for the parliamentarians and benefits to FATF & IMF. These joint sessions ended by passing some pre-written resolutions manipulated behind the scene, whereas the parliamentarians were not free to express their views.

The joint session is for some selected parliamentarians to speak as per the set agenda and rest of the parliamentarians are there just to sit and listen in violation of all democratic norms. Such non-mandatory resolutions end up in creation of ill perception of the parliament among the public.

A question arises why the defined democratic norms are not being observed in the parliament and who is responsible as it has muted its voice on major national issues. I hope the parliament will come out of the muted mode and do something for the rule of law and for the better governance.

The Article was published in The News on January 9, 2022. Link to the original article is https://e.thenews.com.pk/detail?id=43941

The role of parliament and accountability by Senator A. Rehman Malik

A confused and politically immature government and an ineffective parliament can lead the country to the brink of instability and serious consequences.

How can national institutions and parliaments play an active role in enforcing the rule of law and improving governance; this is an important question in the mind of every sane person. The people of Pakistan are worried because our beloved country is going through the worst crises and the nation is witnessing political polarisation and poor governance within the institutions.

The parliament will be remembered as a rubber stamp because it has hardly taken any step for the betterment of the common man till date. The state is in a state of “complete confusion” and the country is losing its direction without the right policies.

The national future is in the hands of the IMF, and statements by several incoming ministers are on record that the government is helpless before the West, including the powerful IMF and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

The country is governed on a daily basis without any solid long-term policies. The state has completely failed to protect the rights of the common man, the crises are increasing with each passing day.

A common man has been waiting for some relief for a long time but every incoming government has not been able to fulfil even the slightest hope of the common man. With the continuous rise in inflation, the difficulties of the common man are increasing manifold.

The cries of the people are being heard in the streets of every city. Contrary to reality, the present ruling party had given hope to the voters which the government could not fulfil due to the battered economy as the people were shown a rose bed by making loud claims. People saw their dreams and hopes shattered and the castles they had built in the air falling.

Political polarisation is on the rise and the Parliament House looks like a wrestling ring. A culture of disrespect and indecency is being witnessed in the Parliament House by both the government and the opposition. I think we need to show more political maturity and decency in Parliament in a pragmatic and result-oriented way.

A confused and politically immature government and an ineffective parliament can lead the country to the brink of instability and serious consequences.

We all have to think about how to find a viable way out of the crisis with national unity to stabilise our economy even though there are no signs of economic recovery at the moment.

The article was published in The Nation on January 9, 2022. Link to the original article. https://nation.com.pk/09-Jan-2022/the-role-of-parliament-and-accountability

IMF demands, sovereignty and the mini budget by Senator A. Rehman Malik

Amendments in State Bank Order 1948 are being brought in the form of an Act which can be named as the International Monetary Funds (IMF) Demands Act. If it is passed by the parliament, then Pakistan will partially lose the power to decide its fiscal matters. This Act will cripple Pakistan by snatching its powers to act as a sovereign state.

We are going to hand over our independence and the future of our generations to the IMF by accepting these demands, only to get $1 billion, which Pakistan could have generated from its resources.

Do you think it is the right decision, wherein we are being sucked in by this new version of the East India Company in the shape of the IMF? This law would prohibit criticising or questioning the Governor SBP for his actions, which means an utter violation of the freedom of speech. The mini-budget has been presented in the National Assembly on the demand of the IMF and more taxes have been imposed on the already crushed common man.

The never-ending demands of the IMF will not stop here as the agenda of the IMF is to cripple our economy and to drive Pakistan towards international demand. Every Pakistani is bound to suffer because of this mini IMF budget. The parliament, opposition parties and the government should come up with a solution to get rid of the IMF with their collective doable debt retirement programme. The nation sees a “dangal” in the parliament instead of a decent approach to handle national issues requiring the indulgence of Parliament.

Here are the salient features of the State Bank Act which has been presented in the parliament and now referred to the concerned standing committee.

As per the proposed amendment, immunity has been granted to the sitting SBP management including the present Board of Directors, the Governor, Deputy Governors, a member of any Board committee and monetary policy committee or the staff of the Bank for any act or performance of any functions or any legislation administered by the Bank.

Not only this, but the tenure of the governor, deputy governors, external members of the Monetary Policy Committee and non-executive board members has also been increased from 3 to 5 years with two terms allowed and also one year’s extension.

As per the latest proposed amendments, the objectives of SBP have been specified for price maintenance and financial stability. While the government has justified this autonomy as a way to maintain price, there has yet been no mention of the inflation targets or price stability despite revising the act.

In what capacity can the State Bank control inflation? Moreover, now the government can pay salaries (though it is bad) by printing currency, whereas, restricting printing currency or loans to our foreign debt-ridden country will come under heavy pressure and we will be forced to beg for more loans. The government will not be able to borrow from SBP under any circumstances, which will badly affect the financial needs of the government and the national exchequer and this will create hardships for the government, pushing us to bankruptcy. There will be no check or deterrence on wrongdoings or criminal mismanagement or any criminal negligence by the employees of SBP.

The entire business community is showing serious objections and reservations on these amendments as the SBP will now not finance any rural credit, industrial credit, export credit, loans guarantee, and housing credit which means that these sectors will get into trouble and mafias with cash will flourish at the cost of the common man and the small business community.

The proposed amendments are posing a serious threat to the sovereignty of our country as the independent State Bank will be omitted from the State domain and it will be the State under obligation to become the subordinate of the State Bank. An independent SBP will be dictating all our institutional decisions and state secrets and operations in the national interest will be directly subject to a security risk and the IMF.

The State Bank will be under the legal ambit to supply information as already committed to the international community via FATF whereas FATF is biased and anti Pakistan.

The bill excludes any government representation on the State Bank Board of Directors as no member of parliament or any state institution will be allowed to become a part of SBP or even allowed to question its irregularities in the Parliament or any court. What a destruction of our economic system by some geniuses working for the IMF it would be. Its basic agenda is to compel the government to prioritise meeting the country’s foreign debt obligations over all other expenses and then continue to take new loans from the IMF to increase its authority. The annual report to the parliament is nothing, as the parliament is not a regulatory authority to oversee the day-to-day functioning of the SBP.

According to the new bill, the monetary policy is the exclusive domain of the State Bank while fiscal policies will be under the Federal government which will severely compromise and damage the macro-economic management of the country as there will be no coordination or coherence between both the domains as these amendments are contradictory and are being brought in with ulterior motives to push the country to bankruptcy. It has been unwisely decided that now the SBP is being given the status of the supreme prestigious institution of the state.

Moreover, the parliament, which can even remove a Prime Minister, cannot invoke any law against the SBP or remove the SBP Governor or Deputy Governor under any circumstances. The SBP Governor can only be removed by the federal government if found and proven guilty of misconduct. It will only be a formality that the Governor would submit an annual report or a half-yearly report, not less than that before the Parliament regarding the achievements without any sort of accountability.

What is the use of such a report which cannot be dissected for legal action? It is just eyewash as this report cannot hold the SBP, the Governor or any other employee of the SBP responsible for any wrongdoings or losses.

A glance at the draft act shows that it is not drafted by us but rather dictated by the agents of the IMF. The draft bill was also shared with the IMF before placing it before the Parliament for discussion and adoption. Our country cannot afford this level of immunity to such a critical institution as it will be detrimental to our economy as well as the sovereignty of our country.

We have witnessed how the budget has been presented in the parliament and how the masses have rejected it as it is going to hurt the common man. 

The article was published in The Nation on January 1, 2022. Link to the original article... https://nation.com.pk/01-Jan-2022/imf-demands-sovereignty-and-the-mini-budget