The Taliban is increasing pressure by every hour and after the complete takeover of the rural area in Afghanistan, they are now heading towards the provincial headquarters. They have seized key districts in Badakhshan and Kandahar provinces and the Afghan troops have fled into neighbouring Tajikistan. It is surprising to note that the Taliban did not have a stronghold on the Northwest part of Afghanistan yet they could capture provinces there easily. There was a stronghold of Ahmad Shah Massoud and Abu Sayyaf Group. It needs to be seen who has helped them or given them freeway. Traditionally speaking, the Taliban had a stronghold in the Southeast.
Afghanistan has now landed in the
worst situation because of the non-compromising attitude by both, the Taliban
and the government, whereas the USA also did not play a decisive role to
install an interim government before the withdrawal and to avoid the possibility
of bloodshed and civil war. Let us review a few of the factors which are acting
and reacting to worsen the situation. The Taliban, over time, have transformed
into tough negotiators and strategic worriers. Mullah Omer could not handle the
Americans and 9/11 brought a different dimension. Although Afghanistan was not
involved in the 9/11 attack, the USA still attacked Afghanistan and Pakistan
was forced to associate with this war on terror.
The Taliban are marching towards
Kabul with the intent of ruling it. History will be witnessing the second rule
of the Taliban. Let us see how the Taliban play their cards and if they refrain
from massacring their opponents. It looks like the Taliban will take steps to
stabilise the country and are wanting to join civilized society. They will make
mistakes if they follow the line of action of India as India has set a big trap
for the Taliban to use them in the neighbourhood.
The Indian intelligence, under
Ajit Doval, is helping the Afghan government and contacting the Taliban
confidentially. The involvement and the interest of Indians can be judged by
the fact that India is assisting and cooperating with the Afghan defence and
security forces.
Fawad Aman, the Deputy Spokesman for
the Ministry of Defence, said yesterday that the Indian ambassador had met with
the Secretary of Defence Bismillah Mohammadi and confirmed that India was
assisting the Afghan defence and security forces and staying with the Afghan people.
At the same time, the Indian Minister of Foreign Affairs met the senior
leadership of the Taliban in Doha twice. According to confirmed sources, India
wants the Taliban to take over even at the cost of immense bloodshed. The
Taliban need to play their cards wisely by not becoming stooges in the hands of
India. Pakistan tried its best to bring about peace and our efforts will
continue.
Meanwhile, Tehran’s efforts ended
after two days of negotiations in a meeting between the Taliban delegation and
the Afghan political delegation with the issuance of an agreement on this
issue. The important aspect of this is that the delegations commended the
efforts and goodwill of the Islamic Republic of Iran in securing peace in
Afghanistan and appreciated its hospitality. Second, both sides agreed on the
dangers of continuing the war and the damage it would do to the country’s
health, agreeing that war was not the answer to Afghanistan’s problem and that
all efforts to reach a political and peaceful solution should be justified.
Both sides decided to discuss issues that need further consultation and
clarity, such as establishing a mechanism for the transition from war to
permanent peace, the agreed Islamic system, and how to achieve it during the
next meeting. The parties consider the Tehran meeting as a new opportunity and
ground for strengthening the political solution to the Afghan problem. Iran has
taken a good initiative to get both parties on the table. Let us hope both
parties understand the language of peace and avoid the use of violence to
resolve their disputes. Let us hope this meeting becomes the first step towards
long-term peace.
Similarly, Russia has shown its
concern over the ‘swiftly degrading situation’ in Afghanistan. Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov has said Russia will do its utmost, including using the Russian
military bases on the border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan to prevent any
aggressive raids against its allies. He stated that Russian President Vladimir
Putin had a conversation with the leaders of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as well
as other Central Asian partners about the Afghanistan issue and that Russia
remains committed to its obligations under the Collective Security Treaty. This
suggested military help in case one of the signatories were to be attacked. In
reality, the deteriorating security situation has prompted Iran and some other
countries to close their consulates in the northern Afghan province of Balkh
with diplomats moving to Kabul. In response to the Russian concerns, Tajikistan
has called on members of a Russian-led military bloc to help it deal with
security challenges emerging from Afghanistan since Moscow has already pledged
to defend its regional allies affected by the unrest.
Meanwhile, the Indian External
Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar is visiting Russia with a one-point agenda of
‘Taliban in Afghanistan’ and a stopover in Tehran.
Addressing the
China-Afghanistan-Pakistan Trilateral Foreign Ministers’ Dialogue, Chinese
Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the current international and regional
situation is undergoing complex and profound changes. He noted that foreign
troops are pulling out of Afghanistan at an accelerated pace, the peace and
reconciliation process in Afghanistan is under attack, armed conflicts and
terrorist activities are becoming more frequent, and the security and stability
of Afghanistan and the region are facing new challenges. Wang Yi said that
under the current circumstances, it is all the more necessary for the three
countries to strengthen communication and cooperation so as to bring the
development of Afghanistan’s situation in line with the region’s common
interests.
Unfortunately, Afghanistan will
remain in focus internationally because of the Taliban takeover and President
Ashraf Ghani will have no choice to submit to the advancing Taliban or to flee
away from the capitol unless he gets American or Indian protection.
The Article was published in The Nation on July 12, 2021, link to the original article: https://nation.com.pk/12-Jul-2021/plight-of-afghanistan-vs-haqqani-net-emerging-rulers
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