The international community wants
to know the background realities behind the recent episode of conflict between
Iran and the USA. The question arises whether both are having the row due to
their own national interests and issues or this is just an additional
escalation tactic to continue a proxy war to make one another happy at the expense of human loss and pose threat to global peace?
This is a serious issue as this row
will increase at the cost of human loss. The recent face savings and apologetic
statements have exposed both sides. President Donald Trump considers that he
has played his cards well by scooping out Iranian General Qasem Soleimani
through a sting operation making many in the Middle East happy without actually
executing a direct attack on Iran. I had earlier stated the same fact in my
article “Eight reasons as to why USA will not directly attack Iran” on 20th
June 2019, in which I had categorically stated that the USA will not make any
direct attack on Iran but will continue to provoke Iran alongside and keep
inflicting Iran’s interests. President Donald Trump and his predecessors
have pressure from their ally, Saudi Arabia to sort out Iran whereas Donald
Trump instead of attacking continued to build constant pressure on Iran.
America had carried out this attack on the soil of Iraq violating the sovereignty of Iraq and the Iraqi government has not yet protested for the
killing of its guest General Qasem Soleimani on their soil.
In view of above complexed facts,
USA will avoid any direct attack on Iran for the following reasons earlier
published and I am upgrading my additional arguments.
1. Iran in its reactions will carry
out counter-attacks on the USA interests in the Middle East; hence the USA
would not like to risk their bases. Iran will not attack Middle East countries,
but it might carry out air or navel surgical strikes instead.
2. Iran will try to destroy USA
interests in Afghanistan which is not in favour of the USA. In fact, Iran will
prefer to have surgical strikes in Israel and Afghanistan as soft targets.
3. Iran might hit the interest of
Israel and also target attacks on US interests worldwide. Any attack on Israel
will escalate the situation as Israel will launch a counter-attack.
4. Iran might use its naval force
in the Middle East and resultantly the USA bases in Muscat will be in trouble.
Iran will only go for targeted surgical strikes.
5. The USA might lose contracts of
billions of dollars as a result of this war. USA will never destroy Iran as it
is the key source for Middle Eastern countries to keep looking towards the USA
for their defense and the USA will not make this mistake.
6. The risk of the Third World War
will increase whereas China and Russia will not accept the domination of the
USA in this region. Any attack on Iran means reaction from China & Russia
which can trigger World War- III.
7. China has built assets to
counter USA defense movements in this region as the war in the Gulf will create
hurdles in the way of Chinese shipping operations. The USA created defense
around the blue line by establishing 5 underground airbases & two with courtesy
of India to have a check on the Gulf Sea and the South China Sea.
8. The USA is under a heavy load of
debts and cannot afford war to destroy its economy. However bluff technology
with the usual blend of fear will continue as business as usual by it. The USA
is under a heavy burden of debts and would continue to have funds from Saudia
and Qatar. It was this reason that Donald Trump made his first visit to Saudi
Arabia taking his defense team along and not the economic team.
It is unfortunate that Iraq has
become a punching bag in the Middle East which has been treated as a launching
pad for actions around Iraq for the USA.
This is a complex situation now
where the USA still claims to remain in Iraq whereas the Iraqi Parliament
including the Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi has asked Americans to
leave their country and USA—Iraq will create more complications in the region
in the upcoming time. The tension between America and Iraq is growing whereas
Iran’s influence on Iraq is likely to grow more in view of direct friction
between the USA and Iran.
We are watching it since long how
Middle Eastern countries are polarised and this polarisation has been
deliberately designed by the designer of Middle Eastern - Geo-Political Map.
I stand by my assessment that the
USA will not directly attack Iran as destroying Iran means to lose its
influence in the region. Middle East politics is behaving like a statistical
sign graph with up and down dips while the entire Middle East is suffering from
uncertainty, fear syndrome and state of internal distrust. This region was
destabilised with the intention to take control over Middle Eastern politics
and its rich resources that’s why it always remained under the influence of the
West. Its destabilisation started with the assassination of President Anwar
Sadat of Egypt who was assassinated on 6 October 1981 during an Army parade in
Cairo as he had fallen out of line from the world establishment and then how
Muammar Gaddafi of Libya was killed and earlier how King Faisal bin Abdulaziz
Al Saud was got eliminated through his own nephew and now Bashar Al Assad of
Syria is already under attack. Similarly, Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was got
assassinated in the hands of General Zia for the same reason while the disposal
of Gen Zia is now part of history. The game of causing destabilisation in the
Middle East started with the use of the generic name of terrorism which is, in
fact, self-created and every country is destabilised with its own branded name
of terrorism specific to a country. Saddam Hussain had created a well-trained
army which was also disbanded after the invasion of Iraq and as a result, Iraq
became defenseless and the same gap was covered by ISIS which emerged as a
lethal terrorist organization.
The activities of ISIS were target
based only as of the USA along with other allies, remained safe from them and
everyone knows why? The world economy is being controlled through terrorist
financing which is a new way to keep the international economy in control
mostly through dollars and Euros. The hounding of Muslim block will continue
because we Muslims are very congenial soft targets and easily fall in traps.
The USA is controlling the region through fear technology which is demonstrated
in different ways and styles and two of them are FATF and others are flying
pirates namely drones.
I had also written in the said
article that the USA will not attack Iran directly but indirect hits will
continue. President Obama and President Bush did not directly attack Iran
despite their commitments with HRH King Abdullah while instead of carrying out
an attack, an agreement emerged between USA and Iran with the mediation of
Switzerland that dismayed the then King Abdullah and it was expressed to me by
King Abdullah himself that President Obama did not honor his commitment of
attacking Iran.
For the reason, King Abdullah did
not tend to agree in the beginning when I told him that USA and Iran are having
back door channels dialogue and King Abdullah had the kind grace to appreciate
the same later on in a meeting with me by believing in my information when USA
- Iran agreement that was signed in Geneva and was made public later.
In 2018 on October 3rd, Donald
Trump even warned the Saudi king by addressing him directly saying: “We protect
you. Saudi Arabia's king "might not be there for two weeks" without
US military support, you have to pay for your military. We defend many of these
nations for nothing, and then they take advantage of us by giving us high oil
prices. Not good. We want them to stop raising prices. We want them to start
lowering prices and they must contribute substantially to military protection
from now on.”
The USA would never like to end the
conflict between the Middle East and Iran as the world will witness how it continues
with this drama of waging wars through different proxies and private war
contractors.
The notorious “Black Water” private
military firm of the USA continued to be involved in intelligence and war
activities of the USA against different countries. The founder of the company
Erik Dean Prince known as “Black Prince” is an American businessman, former US.
Navy Seal officer, and the founder of the government services and Security
Company Blackwater USA, now called Academi. His role in Iran and Afghanistan is
no more a secret as he was a part of a CIA task force created during the early
years of the Bush administration's so-called "war on terror".
Blackwater came under increasing criticism after the Nisour Square massacre in
September 2007, in which Blackwater employees opened fire in a crowded square
in Baghdad, killing 17 Iraqi civilians and seriously wounding 20 more. This
monkey war business will continue to hound the Middle East and Iran, hence both
parties must revisit their strategies.
The face savings analogy and
obliging partners took away the life of General Qasem Soleimani through a sting
operation. I wish this sacrifice of a Gen. Qasem Soleimani including many other
victims of Iraqi invasion killed brutally by ISIS and the recent killings of innocent
176 passengers of Ukrainian Airlines bring some change in their hearts with
fear of God to them and mankind. Perhaps, Donald Trump, his advisors, and
partners might revisit their International Interference policy and may consider
to work for international peace instead of waging wars.
America needs to pay more attention
to resolving local challenges. Many like those in Indian occupied Kashmir and
in Gaza are waiting for their support. May God leads them to the right path of
friendship and peace with inner wisdom to leave the war syndrome to avoid
WW-III. It is my third article and I have not taken the side of anyone rather I
have placed the hard facts with the ground realities of this issue.
I wish PM Imran Khan had called a
meeting of former PMs, presidents, foreign ministers and interior ministers for
their input on the internal and external challenges before launching his
foreign minister into these three countries' grand tour without taking the
mandate of Parliament.
I wish the government had made
public the terms of reference of mediation( if made any) and the mode of
mediation with expected targets given by the PM to be achieved which have been
taken along by our FM on his grand meditation tour.
The Article was published in THE NEWS on January 15, 2020, link to the original article is https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/598742-usa-iran-egos-vs-global-peace
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