The history of Afghanistan shows
that whoever attacked or tried to occupy it, had always suffered heavily
starting from the UK to USSR and now the US. The USSR was an uninvited guest to
grab Afghanistan but eventually, it had to vacate disgracefully with heavy
losses as it paid the heavy cost of disintegration of the USSR. The US did not
learn a lesson from the USSR and even though none of the Afghan nationals were
involved in 9/11 yet it attacked Tora Bora and also dragged Pakistan into this
war and we are still paying the price for favouring the US in this attack
whereas the US still considers us as a suspect. I recall an official meeting
with President Bush Jr in the White House; I had stated in the said meeting
that the US would not win this war in Afghanistan as all the American allies
including Pakistan do not have a common strategy to fight against the common
enemy. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was also present in the meeting who
endorsed my assessment and our PM Syed Yousef Raza Gilani was also present
there. In fact, it was a pointless war against those who were created by the US
itself including Osama Bin Laden; it was like dismantling its own creation
which grew like a monster. So far, the US has spent more than $2 trillion to
sustain this war apart from the fact how Pakistan’s logistics and resources
have been consumed in this non- ending war.
Let me say frankly, that this war
in fact became a big source of corruption and money laundering by those who
handled the funds for this war. This war destroyed the cities of Afghanistan
and created the Taliban who I named the ‘Zaliman’. The corruption as a
by-product of this war helped many to build their villas in Dubai and filled
the banks in Switzerland and France. It requires a separate book, exposing many
in Pakistan and others. While the war handlers received dollars and other
incentives, during the same timeframe, every house in Afghanistan received dead
bodies of their loved ones who were either killed by the mighty American drones
or in the hands of the Taliban. Suffering in terms of killing through drones
was witnessed on both sides of the border. The entire Muslim Ummah bloc now
looks like a destroyed village from Libya to Afghanistan after the Arab spring,
which was another target in the name of 9/11.
Will there be any war commission that will ever investigate the Afghan war and Arab Spring operation? The statement regarding the withdrawal of forces by President Joe Biden did not come as a surprise because withdrawal of the forces has been a generic statement by almost every incoming American President, which is a matter of public record.
I do not mean that the statement of
President Joe Biden is not serious, however, having interacted with him I can
say that he will seriously work to withdraw the forces though I expect
opposition from the CIA and the Pentagon. I hope and wish that President Joe
Biden should mark his name in history as a peacemaker by ending this longest
war of the world.
In fact, Afghanistan has become a
military and intelligence drill ground for many countries at the cost of
thousands of Afghans and partly Pakistan. I have always maintained that a safe
Afghanistan means a safe Pakistan and we also want Afghanistan to handle their
issues themselves. I had a number of meetings with Ashraf Ghani, former
President Hamid Karzai, Mohammad Hanif Atmar, the current Afghan Foreign
Minister and Sayed Jalal Karim (later Presidential candidate). I have always
firmly stated that the solution of Afghanistan is not in the bullet but
dialogue, whereas Pakistan has also been helping Afghan authorities at the cost
of our own suffering because of Afghanistan. Pakistan and Afghanistan need to
work out some homegrown mutually agreed plan in order to march towards peace
and this model of Afghan peace (MAP) plan needs to be well deliberated and
implemented. It was worrying for every Pakistani to hear an unfriendly
statement from President Ashraf Ghani recently at the Presidential Palace in
which he stated: “Today, it is a day of decision for Pakistan,” Ghani said. “If
our country is destabilised, their country will also be unstable and if they
(Pakistan) want our improvement, they will also improve, the choice of
friendship and enmity is in Pakistan’s hands”.
The main spirit of this statement is a warning to Pakistan which is serious and there are clear threats to Pakistan and obviously, the government of Pakistan owes a befitting response to Afghanistan. Unfortunately, within three days of his statement, we noticed a bombing at Serena Hotel in Quetta.
Let us have a hypothetical model of
Afghanistan after the American withdrawal. The most important aspect of this
decision by Joe Biden is that it is not a condition-based drawdown, unlike
former US presidents who have generally put forth a redeployment condition in
Afghanistan based on the threat posed by local enemies and the capabilities of
local allies. Even when Donald Trump had announced for withdrawal in last
year’s negotiations with the Taliban, he had insisted that the Taliban denounce
al-Qaeda and refrain from attacks on US troops. By this announcement, it seems
that the peace process will eventually stand null and void and unlikely to
progress since the Taliban have no incentive to compromise now that the troops
are leaving without conditions. But there is an opportunity for the Taliban to
rise unhindered as local Afghan forces will not be able to resist them marching
towards the capital. Taliban leaders are even of the view that they have won
the war already. As the Taliban’s deputy leader, Sirajuddin Haqqani, recently
said: “No Mujahid ever thought that one day we would face such an improved
state, or that we will crush the arrogance of the rebellious emperors and force
them to admit their defeat at our hands. Fortunately, today, we and you are
experiencing better circumstances.” This statement of Siraj Haqani confirms my
well-thought apprehensions. US lawmakers and other analysts are not happy with
Biden’s decision as they are uncertain about what will happen in Afghanistan
once US President Joe Biden withdraws the remaining 2,500 to 3,500 US troops by
September 11 to end the country’s longest war.
Afghanistan will turn into a mass graveyard unless some mechanism of the US is deployed to stop the likely civil war. Afghan peace will depend on the understanding between the Taliban and the Afghan government, the second possibility is that it could lead to the creation of a new terrorist haven in Afghanistan with widespread influence and rule of Taliban. The Taliban take over cannot be ruled out post-withdrawal of American forces. We would not want the Iraq-like situation of 2011 to be repeated in Afghanistan; it may bring another wave of terror.
It will be a challenging moment for
President Ashraf Ghani to deal with such a change in the region with no
external forces yet the deadly one on its own soil—the Taliban. It is a great
opportunity for Afghanistan as well as Pakistan to come to an agreement with
the Taliban to maintain peace and authority in the region without interference
from external elements unless some friendly countries like Saudi Arabia or UAE
may volunteer to become mediators between the Afghan Taliban and the Afghan
Government. In fact, the above analysis on withdrawal is a true picture of the
post-withdrawal scenario. This withdrawal by a world power without a properly
strategised plan is aimed to avert any civil war between the warlords, the
Afghan Taliban, and the government. The world must not forget the negative role
of India in Afghanistan as India may instigate a civil war between the
pro-Indian Taliban and the Afghan government, whereas the US must also keep in
mind the past ultra-destructive role of India in Afghanistan.
President Ashraf Ghani needs to unfold his plan and join the negotiation table with the Afghan Taliban to reach out to some mutually agreed solution. Pakistan is always there for its Afghan brothers.
The Article was published in The Nation on April 23, 2021, Link to the original article is https://nation.com.pk/23-Apr-2021/peace-or-civil-war-us-withdrawal
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