US’ withdrawal from Afghanistan
without a proper withdrawal strategy will be very detrimental for Afghanistan
and may give rise yet to another monster-like terrorist organisation worse than
Al-Qaeda. Daesh and its sponsors will have a great opportunity like in Iraq
wherein the USA withdrawal gave room to them to grow and strengthen. Hence the
world has to be watchful of any new terrorist monster emerging from
Afghanistan. Pakistan has already suffered the maximum because of a troubled
Afghanistan and it is perhaps the first country in the world that has suffered
because of mistakes and interests of other countries, as neither the USSR taking
over Afghanistan nor the creation of the Mujahideen force was Pakistan’s
mistake.
Afghanistan became first the victim
of the USSR and faced unprecedented and terrible suffering. When the Soviet
tanks rolled into Afghanistan in 1979, threatening the free world’s frontiers,
Pakistan stood by the USA and fought one of the most significant guerrilla wars
that routed the Soviets from Afghanistan. But in return, Pakistan bore the
brunt of unbridled militancy and a tide of millions of Afghan refugees, which to
date remains an unbearable burden on Pakistan’s economy. The ungoverned space
left behind by the USA provided space of all sorts to non-state actors who
infiltrated Pakistan through its long Pak-Afghan borders. Militants who had
been radicalised to function as ferocious Jihadists were threatening Pakistan’s
internal stability, and plunging its economy, while freely mingling with the
Afghan refugees, and providing breeding grounds for today’s Al-Qaeda and it was
a matter of time that this all would blowback, and it did on 9/11. It was
unfortunate and barbaric that despite the fact that none of the actors was a
Pakistani, or Afghan, nor trained or incubated in Pakistan or Afghanistan, yet,
Pakistan was branded as Al-Qaeda’s sympathiser.
The USA left without a proper
withdrawal plan last time which resulted in Mujahedeen transforming into
Taliban and subsequently to Al-Qaeda. The 9/11 attack brought another
devastating effect on Afghanistan and Pakistan and American pressure forced
Pakistan to provide logistics and other war support and it was a blunder on the
part of the then Pakistani leadership to succumb to the pressure of the USA.
These two mistakes basically have driven Pakistan to the verge of bankruptcy because of the forced stopping of our developments and foreign investments and it will take a long time for us to emerge out of these crises. President Joe Biden has given a usual generic statement to withdraw all US forces from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021 which we had seen multiple times earlier coming from almost every newly elected American President which is a matter of public record.
However, I welcome the
statement of President Joe Biden as it is a sigh of great relief for this
region particularly for Pakistan as our Army, under the command of Gen Qamar
Javed Bajwa, has carried out tireless efforts for peace in Afghanistan as it is
important for peace in Pakistan and the whole region. The Americans at the
highest level recognise Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa’ efforts towards Afghan peace
process.
I have already given my
hypothetical model of Afghanistan after the American withdrawal. This
withdrawal without a proper withdrawal strategy will provide a straight
opportunity for the Taliban to rise unhindered to make their government under
the flag of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
The local Afghan forces of
President Ashraf Ghani will not be able to resist the marching Taliban towards
Kabul. Taliban leaders are even of the view that they have won the war already
as they even did not attend the peace conference in Afghanistan. The future
Taliban roadmap can be well judged from the statement of Sirajuddin Haqqani,
deputy leader of Taliban who recently stated: “that one day we would face such
an improved state, or that we will crush the arrogance of the rebellious
emperors, and force them to admit their defeat at our hands. Fortunately,
today, we and you are experiencing better circumstances.”
The Taliban will turn Afghanistan
into a mass graveyard if President Ashraf Ghani offers any resistance to the
takeover of the Afghan Taliban.
The USA must also keep in mind the
past ultra-destructive role of India and other interested parties in
Afghanistan. President Ashraf Ghani must come out with a mutually agreed plan
of some interim government with the nominees of Taliban and create an
atmosphere of some peaceful transition rather than creating an environment of
bloodshed.
Pakistan has been trying and will
continue to try to work for peace in Afghanistan and I am confident that COAS
Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa will do his best by convincing both sides to give peace a
chance in the follow-up of his doctrine displayed in the Afghan Peace Agreement
of Qatar.
Pakistan is always there for Afghan
brothers and sisters for all kinds of support to see peace returning to their
motherland. I have seen physical miseries of Afghan people during my undercover
exile journey through the remote areas by foot and some journeys on broken
jeeps through the destroyed roads by the USSR. Poverty and fears on the faces
of Afghans were disturbing and let us hope soon Afghanis will have a smile on
their faces and once again they all will live together. I wish to drive through
peaceful Afghanistan to refresh my memories and see those unknown Afghans who
were very helpful. I appeal to Mr Sirajuddin Haqqani and President Ashraf Ghani
to sit in a country and work to give a peaceful governing system before the
fleeing of those who matter nowadays as I feel the diplomats will also leave
the country because of the expected civil war. I have few suggestions for the
consideration of US President Joe Bidden and his Secretary of State to avoid civil
war post-US withdrawal from Afghanistan. My suggestions are based on my
observation after the withdrawal of US forces post-USSR defeat.
1. USA to
consider ensuring a one-to-one meeting of President Ashraf Ghani and Sirajuddin
Haqqani with the pre-agreed future roadmap.
2. Ask the UN
to deploy a peacekeeping mission to enforce peace.
3. Establish
an interim government representing all factions of Taliban and the present
government and others.
4. Undertaking
from Taliban that they will not dismantle the female schools.
5. Let the
interim government be for one year and it should be headed by a mutually agreed
non-controversial leader equally respected and having a good working
relationship with all stakeholders.
6. India must
be kept away from this withdrawal strategy to avoid its negative role.
7. Pakistan,
China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia may be taken on board as observers of peace.
8. Sufficient
rehabilitation funding should be announced for the rebuilding of basic
infrastructure and educational institutions.
9. The UN must
pass a resolution prohibiting certain actions by the Taliban-led coalition
government.
My final advice for the American
administration to withdraw from Afghanistan but work out a withdrawal plan in
place while leaving Afghanistan.
The article was published in The Nation on 06 May, 2021, Link to the original article is https://nation.com.pk/06-May-2021/absence-of-a-withdrawal-strategy
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